Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
